Posts with tag: housing crisis

NAEA and ARLA’s Housing Market Predictions and How to Overcome the Crisis

Published On: December 17, 2015 at 9:36 am

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The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) and the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) have joined together to set out their housing market predictions for the next ten years and suggestions for overcoming the current crisis.

The organisations report that house prices and rent prices will soar over the next decade, while buying a property will become further out of reach for many.

NAEA and ARLA's Housing Market Predictions and How to Overcome the Crisis

NAEA and ARLA’s Housing Market Predictions and How to Overcome the Crisis

The NAEA and ARLA predict that homeownership will decline by 7% by 2025, while the number of people living in rental accommodation will increase by 9%.

ARLA believes that rents will rise by over a quarter, while the NAEA expects house prices to surge by 50%.

The sister bodies state that a “drastic and immediate” overhaul is needed to fix the current housing crisis.

The report, compiled with the Centre for Economics and Business Research, suggests what can be done to repair the broken market.

The average house price in the UK is currently about £280,000, with the Housing 2025 report forecasting that it will rise to £419,000 over the next ten years.

In London, prices are expected to almost double in the next decade, from an average of £515,000 at present to £931,000.

Rent prices are predicted to grow by 27% from the current average of £134 per week to £171 in 2025.

Again, those in the capital will face higher rises, paying an extra 34% in rent per week by 2025, from £234 to £314.

The study states that the current level of homeownership amongst the working population of around 62% will drop to 55%, while those living in rental housing will rise from 20% to almost 29% in the next ten years.

David Cox, Managing Director of ARLA, says: “Buying and renting a home is a giant step, and is out of reach for many. Rent costs are already growing at a rate that people are struggling to keep up with and they’re due to become even less sustainable over the next decade.”

Mark Hayward, Managing Director of the NAEA, also comments: “House prices are only going to go one way and unfortunately, that is up. For so many already priced out of the market, this is news aspiring house buyers will not want to hear.”

The organisations are calling for a number of measures to be introduced. These include:

  • Building on some parts of the greenbelt.
  • Mandatory licensing of landlords and letting agents.
  • Encouraging institutional investment in the private rental sector.
  • Encouraging more construction workers from outside the EU to work in Britain.
  • A Stamp Duty exemption for pensioners looking to downsize.

The managing directors say: “The housing crisis Britain is facing is deep-rooted, and if it is to be solved will require finance, suitable land, time, new skills and most importantly, the appropriate national regulation of the key stakeholders, not least the estate agents and letting agents that form our membership. We are calling for change, and it needs to happen soon.”1 

1 http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/do-something-about-it-naea-and-arla-say-housing-market-is-broken/

The Plight of Britain’s Empty Homes

Published On: December 5, 2015 at 11:09 am

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Despite the country going through a severe housing shortage, hundreds of thousands of homes in the UK are empty. So why do these property owners leave their assets vacant?

One particularly extreme case of unoccupied housing is the Bezier building in London’s Old Street area. Located in one of the priciest and trendiest parts of the capital, flats in the block can cost over £1m and monthly rents of £2,000 are charged.

However, more than five years after it was completed, the Bezier is almost half-empty.

Islington Council reported that as of July this year, 42% of the building’s units did not have registered voters living in them. The local authority blames the practice known as buy-to-leave, where wealthy investors, usually from abroad, buy properties and leave them empty. Not only are they missing out on rent money, they are adding to the country’s housing crisis.

And although the headlines are filled with facts and figures about how many homes are needed, there are currently 610,123 empty homes in England, according to the Government. Of these, 205,821 have been vacant for six months or more – the official definition of long-term emptiness.

In September 2014, there were 31,884 long-term empty properties in Scotland and 23,171 homes were unoccupied in Wales for six months or more during 2014-15.

So why would investors leave a property empty and miss out on rent or not bother selling it?

The Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, criticises rich investors for using new build homes as “blocks of bullion in the sky”1, although he added that putting restrictions on investment in London would be wrong.

The majority of people will question why these property owners throw away huge sums of rent money.

But property expert Henry Pryor believes that these investors are being highly calculating; the cost of letting, including repairs and administration, can exceed rental income, he says.

And in the prime new build market, he claims that buyers wish to purchase a pristine property: “Some buyers don’t want to live somewhere second-hand, just as they would feel if buying a Rolls-Royce or an Aston Martin. This applies even when they’re buying a place that’s five years old.”

However, these buy-to-leave investments account for just a small proportion of unoccupied properties. The charity Empty Homes states that more often, the issue is caused by ordinary financial difficulties.

Chief Executive of Empty Homes, Helen Williams, explains: “One of the most common reasons that properties are empty is because the owner cannot raise the money to do the property up to let it out or sell.

“Perhaps they previously rented it out and it now needs more works done to it, or maybe they inherited it.”

She adds that if a property was jointly inherited, it can take years for beneficiaries to decide what to do with it.

A house in York Road, in the North Yorkshire seaside resort of Redcar, was left empty for years after the owner was unable to fund improvements. Community Campus 87 stepped in to renovate the home, using the project to train apprentices.

“It was a mess,” comments Ian Cockerill, of the organisation. “It was right at the entrance to the town and was putting people off.”1

Empty Homes has analysed Government data for England, finding that overall, parts of the north tend to have a larger percentage of unoccupied residential properties that areas in the south.

Additionally, seaside towns are also more likely to experience the issue.

In some parts of the country, it is not just individual properties but whole streets that are vacant, due to areas become less desirable to live in. This could be caused by economic difficulties, such as industries closing down, or a neighbourhood’s bad reputation.

Research conducted in Denmark in 2008 indicates that when an area’s reputation is in decline – such as higher rates of crime – many residents can leave the particular neighbourhood.

However, higher rates of owner-occupation can reduce the effect. Liverpool City Council used this method to improve the problem by selling off derelict houses for just £1 each. If the properties are renovated to a decent standard, the council believes that affected areas will be regenerated.

But what can other councils do to address the problem?

Councils in England can charge property owners 50% extra in Council Tax if their properties are left empty for two or more years. Although this will deter many, it still won’t discourage the wealthiest investors.

Councils also have the power to serve a compulsory purchase order, applicable if officials can prove that they have tried to encourage the owner to bring a property back into acceptable use.

However, compulsory purchase orders are regarded as a last resort.

Thus, in 2006, the Labour government introduced Empty Dwelling Management Orders (EMDOs), allowing local authorities in England to take over the management of residential properties that had been empty for at least six months, if there was no reasonable expectation of them being occupied in the near future.

By 2011, just 64 applications had been made and 43 granted. The coalition government then changed the law so that a home had to be empty for at least two years before an order could be served. It believed that the law was undermining property owners’ rights.

The properties also had to be proven attractions for vandalism, squatters and other forms of anti-social behaviour. These restrictions were implemented in 2012.

The lack of homes on the market is causing councils to become more eager to work with property owners of vacant properties to create stock.

The amount of long-term empty properties

Region

Number of homes

Number recorded as long-term empty

North East 1,196,943 16,052
Yorkshire and the Humberside 2,357,866 27,058
North West 3,193,675 40,461
East Midlands 2,014,514 19,490
West Midlands 2,413,862 22,257
East of England 2,590,719 17,202
London 3,470,247 20,795
South East 3,768,624 23,956
South West 2,457,713 18,550
Total in England 23,464,163 205,821

The National Housing Federation (NHF) calculated that 974,000 homes needed to be built between 2011-14. However, data from 326 councils revealed just 457,490 were completed. Homelessness charity Shelter insists that the country must focus on boosting construction.

However, Williams argues that the UK’s empty housing, whether old and neglected or new and purposely vacant, should be utilised more comprehensively.

Unoccupied homes could be “transformed into new homes for people in search of decent housing at a price they can afford,” she adds. “Creating new homes from empty properties should go alongside building new homes to address housing needs.”1

The Department for Communities and Local Government found that the amount of empty properties is “at its lowest since records began” and that over 100,000 long-term empty homes have been brought back into use since 2010. It adds that the Government offers councils the same financial rewards for bringing unoccupied homes back into use as it does for building new homes.

A spokesperson says that ministers are committed to “helping anyone who works hard and aspires to own their own home to turn their dream into a reality”1.

During the summer, Islington Council granted itself powers to prosecute owners of new build homes that are left empty for longer than three months. Property owners could be fined, sent to prison or have the property seized. However, this will not apply to existing buildings, such as the Bezier.

A spokesperson for the Bezier’s developer, Tudorvale, insists that the units were sold in good faith to people who “worked hard”1 to buy the homes, adding that they do not understand why investors leave apartments empty.

Pryor concludes: “The number of potential homes affected by buy-to-leave isn’t huge in a city the size of London, with a housing stock of several million. But as a percentage of new-built properties, the ones intended to help deal with the housing crisis, they account for quite a significant percentage. It’s about whether property is regarded as a home or an asset.”1 

Have you ever left a property empty and why?

1 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34930602

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

House Price Forecast for 2016

Published On: December 4, 2015 at 4:35 pm

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UK house prices are set to rise by between 4%-6% in 2016, as growing affordability issues and the chance of an interest rate increase slow the property market, according to Halifax.

The mortgage lender found that demand for homes has risen in recent months, but the amount of properties coming onto the market has remained at a record low.

Surveyors and property portals have seen a shortage of homes for sale, which is pushing up prices. They report a vicious circle, as prospective vendors wait until there are more homes up for sale before putting theirs on the market.

The Halifax report is the first 2016 forecast to be published by a major lender. Its Housing Economist, Martin Ellis, says there is little reason to expect the trend to change in the coming year.

House Price Forecast for 2016

House Price Forecast for 2016

“As a result, the substantial imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist, maintaining upward pressure on house prices in 2016,” he adds. “On average, UK house prices look expensive compared to incomes, but valuations are supported by the low levels of property for sale, low levels of house building and exceptionally low interest rates.”

However, Ellis does expect growth to drop from its current level.

Halifax’s latest monthly house price index put the average property value in the UK at £205,240, a 9.7% rise on the same period last year.

For next year, Ellis says national growth is expected to slow to between 4%-6%, adding more than £12,000 to property prices at the top end of the market.

In London, he predicts the slowdown will be sharper. House price growth in the capital has already eased since autumn last year, when Halifax’s index put the average annual increase at 21%. This autumn it fell to 13% and Ellis expects growth to drop to single figures in 2016.

He says the national decline will be fuelled by continuing affordability problems, which have caused prices to rise the equivalent of 5.31 times average earnings in the UK and those in London hitting a record high of 7.96 times wages. And despite mortgage rates sitting at new lows, buyers must save much larger deposits to secure a loan.

He states: “With house prices continuing to increase more quickly than average earnings, it is increasingly difficult to get on the housing ladder.

“This ongoing development, combined with the growing prospect of an interest rate rise, should start to put the brakes on house price growth during the course of 2016.”

Halifax’s monthly data is based on mortgages it agrees each month, adjusted to reflect the sale of an average home. Rises have surpassed the 3%-5% predicted by the bank a year ago, the result of interest rate rises being postponed, the continued decrease in the cost of mortgages and a lack of supply.

Further into the future, Halifax expects growth to sit fairly in line with earnings, which have started to pick up recently. However, much will depend on whether the Government fulfils its promises to build more homes.

Ellis says: “Levels of house building remain well below those required to keep up with the pace of household formation, but we do expect improvements over the medium term. An upward trend in house building would help to bring demand and supply into better balance, helping to constrain upward pressure on house prices.”1 

Halifax’s forecast for next year is in line with the prediction released by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It expects growth of 4.8% in 2016, followed by a similar rise in 2017.

However, the OBR says changes to landlord taxes added uncertainty to its predictions. In April, buy-to-let investors and second home buyers will be charged an extra 3% in Stamp Duty. Read more here: /16883-2/

The changes could cause a rush in activity before the hike is introduced, pushing prices up in the short term.

1 http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/dec/04/uk-house-prices-set-to-rise-further-as-demand-outstrips-supply

 

Stamp Duty Hikes Won’t Help Generation Rent, Warns Expert

Published On: December 4, 2015 at 10:01 am

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Chancellor George Osborne’s increased tax for buy-to-let landlords will be “ineffective for its purported aims”, according to the mortgage director of one of the world’s leading independent financial advice bodies.

Stamp Duty Hikes Won't Help Generation Rent, Warns Expert

Stamp Duty Hikes Won’t Help Generation Rent, Warns Expert

Mike Coady, head of deVere Group’s deVere Mortgages, made this claim after Osborne announced that buy-to-let investors and second home buyers will be charged an additional 3% in Stamp Duty from April.

Coady begins: “It is commendable that the Government wants as many people to own their own home as possible and, of course, this is something all of us in the mortgages industry would promote.

“However, for three main reasons, the Chancellor’s new 3% Stamp Duty surcharge will be ineffective in its purported aims of raising cash to help first time buyers and paying for more affordable housing.”

He explains: “First, the revenue raised by this initiative – £1 billion by 2021 – is a nominal figure when given the scale and seriousness of the UK’s affordable housing crisis.

“To many it seems this is something of a political stunt. The Government is wanting to be seen to be acting on this emotive and topical issue and is doing so by appealing to the politics of envy with buy-to-let landlords and second home owners the targets.”

Coady warns that many buyers will be rushing to buy property between now and April to avoid the higher costs. Naturally, this would push up house prices in the short-term.

He continues: “Furthermore, in the medium to long term, I don’t believe it will put off overseas or UK purchasers from investing in property. Despite the 3% Stamp Duty surcharge, which is not ideal of course, most investors will still regard investing in property in the UK, especially in areas like London, the South East and Manchester, as an attractive and safe investment opportunity.”

Coady also notes that as property investment is often a long-term commitment, 3% over the entire investment period is something that many landlords will be able to manage.

However, he warns that tenants could find their rent prices rising when the change is made in April, as landlords are likely to pass on their costs to renters. This could make it even harder for prospective first time buyers to get onto the property ladder.

He concludes: “The Stamp Duty will be ineffective in helping first time buyers, indeed it could hinder them further. If the Government is serious about helping generation rent, it needs to rethink. The solution to the housing crisis is not the rate of Stamp Duty.

“Planning restrictions and building more homes would be a better way to deal with the ongoing housing crisis in Britain.”1

1 https://www.landlordtoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2015/12/btl-tax-clampdown-wont-help-generation-rent

Amount of New Affordable Homes Soars by 55%

Published On: December 3, 2015 at 2:40 pm

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The amount of new affordable homes created in England soared by 55% in 2014-15, according to official data. However, there was a decrease in the supply of properties available at the lowest social rents, taking it to the lowest level for more than 20 years.

During the year, 66,640 affordable homes were provided, up from 42,870 in 2013-14, revealed the Department for Communities and Local Government. This figure is made up of new build homes and properties bought by housing associations and councils.

The number does not take into account any affordable homes that were lost over the year, but it is the highest in 19 years and more than double the 32,920 created in 2002-03.

However, the amount of homes built for social rent – the cheapest price charged by local authorities and housing associations, and available to those on council housing lists – dropped by 12% to 9,590, lower than the 10,920 recorded in 2013-14 and the lowest since records began in 1991-92.

Amount of New Affordable Homes Soars by 55%

Amount of New Affordable Homes Soars by 55%

The main cause of the overall increase was a jump in the number of homes provided at affordable rent. This tenure, launched in 2011, allows providers to charge rents of up to 80% of the local market rate.

Over the last year, 40,710 properties were built for rent under this scheme, more than double the figure recorded in the previous 12 months.

Government statistics found that generally, tenants are paying 70% of the market rate on affordable rental homes, with the average rent standing at £123.92 per week in 2014-15. The average social rent is £85.49 a week.

In London, the typical affordable rent is £178.53 a week, or 48% of the market rate, while social rents average £111.71 per week.

The Department for Communities and Local Government’s data shows that 270 homes were created for intermediate rent, which sits between social rent and affordable rent, and 16,080 for purchase through schemes such as shared ownership.

At presents, house builders of all but the smallest developments are required to provide some form of affordable housing, or a payment to the local council instead. However, the Government’s starter homes scheme will allow new houses to be built without this requirement.

The Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) welcomes the rise in affordable housing, but warns that the uphill trend in the amount of rental homes could be reversed in the future.

Terrie Alafat, Chief Executive of the CIH, comments: “The Chancellor announced a significant investment in housing in the Spending Review and Autumn Statement, but most of that money is going towards homeownership.

“We know the Government is committed to increasing the supply of new homes, but it looks like support for any kind of affordable rent is going to fall at a time when there is an increasing need for this kind of housing. What about people who can’t afford to buy, even with Government support?”1

Chief Executive of homelessness charity Shelter, Campbell Robb, also believes the figures are encouraging, but adds: “The true test will be whether or not these homes are affordable to people on ordinary incomes.

“The only way to turn around our housing crisis for the long-term is to provide homes for rent or buy that people on low or average wages can actually afford.”1

And Neal Hudson, UK Housing Market Analyst at Savills, highlights data that reveals the amount of new homes in the pipeline has fallen over the same period, from 4,625 starts in 2013-14, to 3,604 in 2014-15.

“Affordable housing completions look to have finally recovered from the cut in grant and shift to affordable rent,” he observes. “Unfortunately, the uncertainty created by Government’s policy approach looks to be feeding into housing starts, which have slowed and are now below the level of completions.”1

The Green Party Member of the London Assembly, Darren Johnson, concludes: “These figures hide the fact that the homes being built are a lot less affordable than they were five or ten years ago. Fewer than one in five affordable homes built last year were for social rent – at levels that people on low incomes can actually afford.

“The total figures for the last year only look impressive because a big lump of a four-year programme has been finished in one year. The two previous years saw very few homes finished. There’s a big drop followed by a big spike. On average, over the past few years, the level of affordable housing building has remained far too low.”1

1 http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/dec/02/new-affordable-homes-in-england-jumps-dclg

 

 

 

 

Just 25% of Young Adults will Own a Home by 2025

Published On: November 17, 2015 at 3:55 pm

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Around 60% of 20 to 39-year-olds in England will live in private rental homes by 2025, with just 26% owning their own property, according to new research.

Just 25% of Young Adults will Own a Home by 2025

Just 25% of Young Adults will Own a Home by 2025

It is claimed that generation rent will continue to find it difficult to buy a home and are likely to be older than previous generations before they can get onto the property ladder, says the report from PwC. The firm has analysed data on the housing market from the summer.

It believes that high house prices and deposits, alongside rising interest rates, will put young adults at risk of being priced out of the market.

The biggest shift in lifestyle is expected amongst 25 to 34-year-olds, with two-thirds of households living in the private rental sector by 2025, compared with 48% in 2013. In the 35 to 44 age range, a third will be renting in ten year’s time, compared to 24% in 2013. Among 45 to 54-year-olds, the number is expected to increase from 15% to 21%.

Within the 20 to 39 category, just 26% will own their home by 2025, down from 38% in 2013.

The older generations that have recently benefited from the huge rise in home values will mostly be protected from these trends, believes PwC. Three-quarters of over-55s own the home they currently live in and it is expected that this will be the same in 2025.

Senior Economist at PwC, Richard Snook, says the study highlights the scale of the challenge facing young adults. He insists that the continuous rise of house prices, which has much exceeded wage growth, is fundamentally affecting the way people live. He believes that policy must be changed to adapt to the differences in tenure.

He explains: “This could include encouraging a better quality of private rented accommodation, including longer tenure periods, and more rental properties designed for families.

“Demand for housing in the UK has outstripped supply for more than two decades. Changing the outlook for generation rent will require us to build more houses than needed just to match population growth in order to make up the past shortfall between housing supply and growth in demand.”1

Our recent report on buy-to-let mortgages reveals that competition is mounting amongst lenders hoping to attract new investors. Read more here: /buy-to-let-mortgage-market-is-thriving/

Moneyfacts has found that the average rate on a two-year fixed rate buy-to-let mortgage has dropped to 3.26% from 3.63% a year ago and 5.23% in 2010. The typical rate for a five-year fixed rate loan has fallen to 4.06% compared to 4.33% last year and 6.12% five years ago.

The amount of fee-free buy-to-let mortgages has doubled in the past 12 months, standing at 130.

It appears that a vicious circle of supply and demand has formed. But will this continue?

1 http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/nov/17/generation-rent-young-adults-housing-ladder-2025