Posts with tag: house prices

Halifax reports annual UK house price growth continues to slow

Published On: September 9, 2021 at 8:26 am

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Average UK house price rises again, Halifax House Price Index reports

The average house price in the UK during August was £262,954, according to Halifax’s latest House Price Index report.

Other highlights include:

  • Annual house price inflation has slowed further to 7.1%
  • Wales remains the strongest region or nation, with London continuing to lag

Russell Galley, Managing Director of Halifax, comments within the report: “Given the rapid gains seen over the past 12 months, August’s rise was relatively modest and the annual rate of house price inflation continued to slow, hitting a five-month low of 7.1% (versus 7.6% in July). 

“However, compared to June 2020, when the housing market began to reopen from the first lockdown, prices remain more than £23,600 higher (or +9.9%).”

Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, comments: “For all the speculation about what would happen when the Stamp Duty holiday ended, today’s figures look like business as usual for a jaw-dropping year for house prices.

“There’s another record for the cost of an average house, though the pace of growth is slowing month by month.

“Any increase to house prices now is fuelled by a short supply of housing stock coupled with the demand for space, as people continue to work from home and retain flexible working.

“People’s choices are reflected in the regional breakdown, with the South West and Wales seeing the biggest growth, and London lagging behind as commuters flee the rat race.

“Scarcity of properties on the market will continue to prop up prices for the foreseeable future, and we may be entering a period of stability after the rollercoaster of the past 18 months.” 

Lucy Pendleton, property expert at independent estate agents James Pendleton, comments: “London might be continuing to lag, but green shoots are visible now. The capital isn’t used to being a sideshow to the rest of the country but that’s what the peculiar set of circumstances over the past 18 months has delivered. 

“It won’t last though. While annual price growth softens as a whole nationally, demand is strengthening once more in London.

“By the end of the year we expect the narrative to have changed significantly, from one in which London has been the poor relation to a story of the traditional frontrunner regaining its crown, at least on relative terms. 

“That’s partly being powered by first-time buyers. Many young people and professionals still want to live in London, at least for a period, and the numbers of them beating a path to estate agents’ doors has shot up in the past couple of months. It’s no accident that passenger levels on the Tube are also back to pre-pandemic levels. We know who’s filling them. It’s back to the office time, buyers are rediscovering the capital and why it’s great to live there.”

Nicky Stevenson, Managing Director at national estate agent group Fine & Country, says: “The market remains turbo-charged and agents now expect strong growth to continue over the next 12 months.

“Though the Stamp Duty holiday is gradually being phased out, the supply-demand imbalance remains a key driver of prices across the country.

“While the number of new-build homes coming to the market is gradually increasing, there is still much ground to be made up from the market closure last year, and this is one factor that could help moderate price growth later on down the line.

“As we go into the autumn, we can expect the housing market to track the growth of the economy as a whole. The overall picture should remain robust as employment grows, worker wages climb and the economy continues to bounce back from the dark days of the recession.

“Sub one per cent mortgage deals, government support for first time buyers and a dearth of housing stock means a snapback isn’t on the immediate horizon.

“All things point toward a sustained period of year-on-year growth.”

Joshua Raymond, Director at financial brokerage XTB, comments: “The Halifax House Price Index (UK’s longest running monthly house price series) came in below expectations at 0,7% compared to the expected increase of 1.1%.

“Prices have been under increasing pressure after the index showed significant signs of slowdown in the last couple of months after a fairly stable increase throughout Q2. As overall inflation pressures continue to be a key issue followed by the Bank of England, along with other central banks, a continuation of the current trends could see the central bank stepping in and taking action even sooner than was previously expected.

“While a return to work and easing of lockdowns was expected to significantly boost property prices, it seems as if there are still some major hurdles the UK economy has to contend with.”

Average UK house price hits almost £250k in August, Nationwide figures show

Published On: September 2, 2021 at 8:06 am

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Nationwide records slight increase in house prices during November

The latest House Price Index from Nationwide shows that annual house prices increased to 11% August.

Prices are up 2.1% month-on-month, which is the second largest gain in 15 years, the report states.

The average house price during August was £248,857.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, comments on these figures: “Annual house price growth increased to 11% in August, from 10.5% in July. Prices rose 2.1% in month-on-month terms, after taking account of seasonal effects. House prices are now around 13% higher than when the pandemic began.

“The bounce back in August is surprising because it seemed more likely that the tapering of Stamp Duty relief in England at the end of June would take some of the heat out of the market. Moreover, the monthly price increase was substantial – at 2.1%, it was the second largest monthly gain in 15 years (after the 2.3% monthly rise recorded in April this year).

“The strength may reflect strong demand from those buying a property priced between £125,000 and £250,000 who are looking to take advantage of the Stamp Duty relief in place until the end of September, though the maximum savings are substantially lower (£2,500 compared to a maximum saving of £15,000 on a property valued at £500,000 before the Stamp Duty relief in England tapered). 

“Lack of supply is also likely to be a key factor behind August’s price increase, with estate agents reporting low numbers of properties on their books.

Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, comments: “The remorseless rise of house prices continued through August, with the value of the average home now nudging a quarter of a million pounds.

“Even the scaling back of the Stamp Duty holiday hasn’t put the dampers on the demand we are seeing for property across the country.

“First-time buyers with a deposit in the bank are itching to get their foot on the ladder and incentives such as the extended Help to Buy scheme and the 95% government guarantee mortgages are making it all the more appealing to buy now. 

“The main obstacle to intended buyers is the lack of properties on the market, and that lack of supply is likely to keep prices moving upwards in the short term.”

Lucy Pendleton, property expert at independent estate agents James Pendleton, comments: “It turns out that, for all the posturing, the Stamp Duty discount wasn’t doing any of the pushing after all.

“This is a timely lesson that it’s the fundamentals of the market that are all-powerful still. Sunak’s generous state handout has turned out to be more a demonstration of misdirection than crisis management.

“The market didn’t need his money and, with hundreds of billions tucked away in accidental savings, Britons are continuing to satisfy a deep-seated determination to move after a traumatic 18 months.

“First-time buyers have had their patience sorely tested and are now being pulled back into the frenzy in increasing numbers. Where, once, most of them would have bet on the market cooling and giving them a chance to seek better value, fears that rising inflation will put a protective arm around this bull run are cutting down those numbers. This readout for August has relegated a strategy of ‘wait-and-see’ to wishful thinking.”

Nicky Stevenson, Managing Director at national estate agent group Fine & Country, says: “This latest spike is stunning given that most analysts expected prices to decelerate as the Stamp Duty holiday entered its final throes going into the autumn.

“Those forecasts have now all proved wrong, and after a bumper summer which featured record borrowing, growth in Britain’s housing market still shows no sign of dampening.

“While the Stamp Duty holiday savings on big homes is quickly vanishing, a greater proportion of market activity is now in the mass market sector, buoyed by the resurgence of buy-to-let investing and first-time buyers.

“It is these sectors that continue to power double digit growth across the country.

“Based on this latest data, the market may well be running red-hot for some time to come, fuelled by low cost of borrowing, shrinking housing supply and government incentive schemes for first time buyers.

“The boom goes on.”

Government shares house price data for final month of Stamp Duty holiday

Published On: August 23, 2021 at 7:42 am

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The commuter belt rental markets where tenants can reduce their rent by as much as half

The statistics for June 2021 reported in the Government’s UK House Price Index reveal an annual price change of 13.2%.

The monthly price change for a property in June was 4.5% and the overall average price of a UK property was £265,668.

Industry reaction to the Government’s latest house price data

Marc von Grundherr, Director of Benham and Reeves, comments: “Another behemoth level of house price growth both on a monthly and annual basis, no doubt influenced by the first of the staggered extensions to the Stamp Duty holiday as homebuyers purchasing above the £250,000 threshold continued to scramble to secure a saving before the clock expired. 

“The London market has seen a lesser degree of property market manipulation as a result of the Stamp Duty holiday. As a result, the capital continues to trail where property price appreciation is concerned but we’re seeing a far more stable market start to emerge and one that is showing greater long-term momentum as both domestic and foreign interest start to return.

“Sales are increasing, sellers are achieving a greater level of asking price than they were just a few months ago, and all of these indicators suggest a property market resurgence is stirring.”

James Forrester, Managing Director of Barrows and Forrester, comments: “The UK property market continues to flourish driven, in part, by the Stamp Duty holiday but also the ongoing trend for larger homes, with detached properties seeing a huge 15.6% annual increase. 

“We now know that the initial Stamp Duty deadline at the end of June has failed to dampen this appetite and the market cliff edge that many predicted is now starting to look very unlikely. With buyer demand remaining extremely robust and stock shortages plaguing much of the market, it’s safe to say house prices will continue to climb throughout the remainder of the year.”

Colby Short, Founder and CEO of GetAgent.co.uk, comments: “We’ve seen an uplift in transaction levels in the last year alone and properties are now selling far quicker and for a much higher price. 

“However, it’s important to remember that when looking to buy in current market conditions you’re really facing a two-speed market posing very contrasting challenges. 

“The initial challenge is securing a property as they go under offer within weeks, sometimes days, of being listed for sale. The cost of doing so is also going to be considerably higher and that’s something to factor in when looking to buy. 

“But beyond this point, there remain sizable delays and so the likelihood is that you won’t see your sale actually complete until some months later.”

Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, says: “These figures paint an arresting picture of the frenzy we saw towards the end of the full Stamp Duty holiday as house prices boomed with buyers rushing to get their key in the lock.

“Areas outside of London still continue to lead the way on house price growth, as people scour the country for more living space.

“Despite the winding down of the Stamp Duty holiday and more people feeling the pressure to return to the office, all the elements are still in place for house prices to remain higher than usual for the foreseeable future.

“With demand for properties still ever-present and estate agents across the country facing a smaller pool of homes to sell, many prospective buyers will also be sitting on their deposit until the perfect home comes along. This factor will keep prices higher in the long term.”

Lucy Pendleton, property expert at independent estate agents James Pendleton, comments: “Prices went berserk as the Stamp Duty taper closed in. The pace of growth set in the North West is frankly astonishing. This is the last time this year, or even in our lifetimes, that you’ll see growth spurts like this in response to government support.

“Scenes like this are only possible in those areas starting from a lower base, and there’s a big question mark over how many of these buyers really made a saving. Amid fierce competition, there’s a good chance that many of them became so committed to a particular move that the financials were thrown out with the bath water. 

“Needless to say, as soon as July arrived, we entered a very different market, and some of this exuberance will have to unwind. London is probably most protected from that eventuality. Prices are still approximately double the national average in London but the capital hasn’t had its running shoes on like the rest of the country. 

“London remains the dark horse of the property market. It’s much harder to predict where it will go over the remainder of the year, though demand is certainly broadening out. The rental market is once again on fire, demand is spreading to a greater range of property types as the race for space fades and even the supercars are back in Knightsbridge.

“These new trends have been forming ever since the country had unlocking in its sights. The capital could well turn the tables on the rest of the country over the next 12 months.”

Nicky Stevenson, Managing Director at national estate agent group Fine & Country, says: “The last gasps of the Stamp Duty holiday injected a sense of urgency into buying patterns with house hunters desperate to land the home of their dreams before the tax giveaway largely vanished.

“This data also shows the race for space is still in full swing with the relentless escalation of house prices continuing across the country, and areas not typically at the forefront suddenly finding their moment in the sun.

“Ultra-low interest rates and shrinking housing stock continue to fuel a red-hot market amid a stampede which some are now likening to the gold rush. The fever gripping the North West in particular is something to behold.

“And in London where growth has been more modest, agents are now bracing themselves for a return to full-throttle as investors from the Gulf return to the market with the UAE now on our amber list.

“A tremendous buzz is building in the capital and viewings from overseas investors are already beginning to soar with many wondering if we will witness the same double-digit growth in London that has already been recorded in other areas of the country.

“While we expect things to steady later in the year, there is nothing in this data to suggest the brakes will be applied heavily to what has become a run-away market.”

Are Deliveroo options increasing average house prices in England?

Published On: August 10, 2021 at 8:20 am

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Are Deliveroo options increasing average house prices in England?

Living in an area with a large variety of restaurant and takeaway options can add an average of £36,000 to your home’s value, research from property portal Boomin finds.

Researchers reviewed house price increases across the nation and their correlation to the number of restaurant options each postcode had nearby. The study says that those with approximately 100 different options on the popular takeaway app can expect their home’s value to be boosted by more than £35,000.

With takeaway apps having become more important throughout the pandemic, the study looked at house price values in areas near specific food brands. Some of these brands have been found to add more value than others, such as Papa John’s, at an average of £11,355. Meanwhile, a postcode within delivery range of a KFC could bring an additional £13,008 of value.

Nearby restaurants were also found to make a substantial difference. Homes nearby a Gourmet Burger Kitchen apparently cost on average an additional £27,274. Home close to a Wagamama have an average value increase of £30,887.

Of all the brands included in the research, homes near a Byron Burger have the biggest average increase at £33,132.

The food brands that add the most value to your home

BrandAverage Value Increase (based on whether delivery is available to a postcode)
1. Byron Burger£33,132
2. Turtle Bay£31,417
3. Wagamama£30,887
4. Gourmet Burger Kitchen£27,274
5. Prezzo£26,889
6. Harvester£26,113
7. Franco Manca£21,326
8. Bella Italia£17,637
9. Roosters Piri Piri£15,308
10. KFC£13,008

Michael Bruce, CEO and Founder of Boomin, commented: “Within just the last 5 years, what buyers are looking for in a home has changed drastically. Choice seems to be leading the way, with owners wanting more things to do, to see and evidentially, to put on their plates.

“Living in a location with good restaurants adds to the general ‘feel’ of an area, so much like certain supermarkets adding value to a home, it’s no surprise that particular restaurant brands have the same power to influence prices too. What was surprising however, was just how much an effect Deliveroo and having a good amount of choice on the app has changed things. Deliveries were essential during the pandemic, and the knock-on effect has been beneficial for home owners living in areas with more variety. As we become more reliant on speedy deliveries and having a whole host of choice at our fingertips, I can only see this value rising further in the future.”

House prices increased in July but growth has begun to cool off annually, reports Halifax

Published On: August 9, 2021 at 8:16 am

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Average UK house price rises again, Halifax House Price Index reports

Although UK house prices increased again in July, annual growth within the property market appears to be cooling off, the latest Halifax House Price Index shows.

The highlights include:

  • Annual house price inflation is at 7.6% compared to 8.7% in June
  • The average price of a UK property is now £261,221, up 0.4% in July
  • Wales records strongest house price growth since 2005

Russell Galley, Managing Director of Halifax, comments within the report: “Latest industry figures show instructions for sale are falling and estate agents are experiencing a drop in their available stock. This general lack of supply should help to support prices in the near-term, as will the exceptionally low cost of borrowing and continued strong customer demand.”

“We are seeing on the ground that the demand for properties is still high, and estate agents across the country are clamouring for stock – especially those elusive detached family homes that are so sought after at the moment.

“It’s going to be interesting to see if this cooling down of annual house price growth is indicative of a slight adjustment on the horizon that could see a return to a more stable market as we move out of the pandemic.

“If that does happen, we should expect the demand to stay high, as buyers who currently feel priced out in a competitive market will return to the market to get their feet on the property ladder.”

Marc von Grundherr, Director of Benham and Reeves, comments: “Just when you thought the wild ride of property price growth seen over the last year might be coming to an end, the market has bounced back yet again to register further positive movement.

“As we approach the third and final Stamp Duty holiday deadline it’s only natural that the rate of house price growth will ease as market activity reduces but despite this, we certainly look on course to finish the year on a very positive note.”

James Forrester, Managing Director of Barrows and Forrester, comments: “The house price boom continues and even the unpredictable British summertime can do little to dampen the enthusiasm of UK homebuyers and sellers as properties continue to sell incredibly quickly and for a very good price across the vast majority of the nation.”

Colby Short, Founder and CEO of GetAgent.co.uk, comments: “A shortage of stock, high demand and the lower cost of borrowing will keep the market buoyant far beyond September and the end of the Stamp Duty holiday. However, should interest rates start to creep up over the coming months, many homebuyers could find themselves in a tough spot having paid over the odds for a property in current market conditions.”

Ben Taylor, CEO of Keller Williams UK, comments: “Homebuyer confidence remains high at present despite many having to battle it out with multiple other buyers in order to secure a purchase. This continued imbalance between supply and demand will ensure house price growth remains buoyant over the summer months, although we can expect a slow in pace as we approach the final quarter due to a combination of the Stamp Duty holiday ending and wider seasonal influences.”

Lucy Pendleton, property expert at independent estate agents James Pendleton, comments: “The housing market is plateauing, not peaking, and London is getting its mojo back as the country returns to normal. Anyone who believes the market is going to take a tumble just because the Stamp Duty holiday has largely ended is writing their own epitaph.

“A softer annual growth rate is simply a symptom of the pressure coming off buyers a little. There’s no longer a reason to compromise on price for the sake of speed. Whereas, before, they had minutes to make a decision, they now have the luxury of a few days in many cases to make up their minds. Demand is still strong and there remains a shortage of stock right across the country.

“The reality is that no one we’re dealing with is even mentioning the Stamp Duty holiday. It’s a distant memory, and many of those who realised they weren’t going to make the June deadline and stepped away, have returned, determined to make their move happen. There isn’t the same level of activity as there was four months ago but that was never going to be the case.

“London, which hasn’t seen prices grow as fast as the rest of the country since the pandemic began, is getting back on the front foot. Workers, particularly young professionals, are moving back into the centre of town. Employers are indicating it’s time to get back to work, and this generation have got the memo. The lettings market is off the chart and this is usually an early indication that there are heady days to come for the capital’s sales market too.

“Meanwhile, the phenomenon of escaping to the country seems to have burnt itself out. Those who were going to go, have gone. Everyone who remains belongs in the category of loving the idea but going sour on the expense and disruption involved. It’s very much like when you return from holiday with plans to buy a holiday home. You keep the dream alive for a couple of weeks and then real life takes over and it’s forgotten. It doesn’t help that you can now pay as much in Padstow as Putney.”

Nicky Stevenson, Managing Director at national estate agent group Fine & Country, comments: “This data shows the era of ballooning house prices is not over yet, even if a little air is now slowly starting to hiss out of the market.

“While annual growth has softened slightly since the frenzied heyday of the Stamp Duty holiday, there is still a great wall of money coming into the market despite the phasing out of this much celebrated tax break.

“Super low interest rates, shrinking housing stock, greater mortgage availability and government support for buyers should mean house price growth remains resilient into the autumn.

“Buyers are still piling in, hungry for bigger homes with more space and gardens in areas rich with amenities, and only time will tell if this shift in demand away from cities has been exaggerated.

“Though house price growth in London remains sluggish at the moment, we are already seeing a rise in enquiries nationally for city boltholes and pied-à-terres.

“More people than ever desire a second home and there’s nothing like having a place right in the centre of it all.

“We expect the housing market across the UK will continue to mirror the robust performance of the economy at large as businesses take-off again following the lifting of restrictions.”

Annual house price growth remains in double digits but down month-on-month

Published On: July 30, 2021 at 8:31 am

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Annual house price growth remains in double digits but slows month-on-month

House price growth in the UK is slowing down, but currently remains in double digits, according to the latest Nationwide House Price Index.

The July report on UK house prices from Nationwide states the following highlights:

  • Annual house price growth remained in double digits, but fell back to 10.5%
  • Prices are down 0.5% month-on-month
  • The average house price is now £244,229

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, comments within the report: “Annual house price growth slowed to 10.5% in July, from the 17-year high of 13.4% recorded the previous month. In month-on-month terms, house prices fell by 0.5%, after taking account of seasonal effects, following a 0.7% rise in June.

“The modest fallback in July was unsurprising given the significant gains recorded in recent months. Indeed, house prices increased by an average of 1.6% a month over the April to June period – more than six times the average monthly gain recorded in the five years before the pandemic.

“The tapering of Stamp Duty relief in England is also likely to have taken some of the heat out of the market. The nil rate band threshold decreased from £500,000 to £250,000 at the end of June (it will revert to £125,000 at the end of September). This provided a strong incentive to complete house purchases before the end of June, especially for higher priced properties. For those purchasing a property above £250,000, the maximum Stamp Duty saving reduced from £15,000 to £2,500 after the end of June.”

Colby Short, Founder and CEO of GetAgent.co.uk, comments: “It’s probably fair to say that while an extension was welcomed, the Stamp Duty holiday is starting to linger over the market like a bad smell.

“For the vast majority, the intended benefit has now been nullified thanks to the huge rates of house price growth seen since launch. With the long delays that have also ensued as a result of such unprecedented levels of buyer demand, it’s arguably never been less appealing to embark on the archaic process of buying a home.

“Despite this, homebuyers have, and will, continue to flock to the market in order to realise their dream of homeownership and this will help maintain the upward price trends seen of late.”

James Forrester, Managing Director of Barrows and Forrester, comments: “The recent heatwave may have subsided but the property market is still running red hot and, despite the odd month to month wobble, we continue to see double-digit annual growth which is a phenomenal rate to have been sustained so consistently.

Marc von Grundherr, Director of Benham and Reeves, comments: “Even the apocalyptic wet weather seen over the weekend can’t dampen the UK housing market, with yet more strong upward movement despite the impending expiry of the Stamp Duty holiday.

“Even in London where the rate of house price growth has been less pronounced than the rest of the UK, homes are selling at a rate of knots and homesellers are achieving a far higher percentage of asking price than they were just a few short months ago.”

Ben Taylor, CEO of Keller Williams UK, comments: “A severe shortage of housing stock, the low cost of borrowing and a high level of buyer confidence are the perfect ingredients to maintain what has been a pretty impressive run of house price appreciation.

“The widespread talks of a market cliff edge once the Stamp Duty holiday ends have now turned to hushed whispers and while record rates of growth will inevitably lead to some monthly ups and downs, the long-term health of the UK property market is looking very good at present.”

Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, says: “House prices took a small pause from their breathless race to new heights this month, but there was no sign of a serious slowdown due to the winding down of the Stamp Duty holiday.

“Demand is still strong and, while there has been a slight adjustment in some areas, house prices are still way above the average figures we’ve seen in recent years.

“Let’s not forget as well that prospective buyers looking at properties under £250,000 are still eligible for the break in Stamp Duty and it’s likely that prices will remain high in those areas until the scheme ends.

“Buyers are still desperate to get their hands on those elusive detached family homes away from the big cities, and prices will keep being pushed up while supply lags behind.

“It’s going to be interesting to see how the demand for properties changes as we come into the autumn. This will give us the opportunity to evaluate just how successful the Stamp Duty holiday has been at keeping the property market buoyant since the start of the pandemic.”

Nicky Stevenson, Managing Director at national estate agent group Fine & Country, says: “Annual house price growth remains at a gallop though it has moderated slightly from last month’s exceptional spike.

“While the Chancellor’s tax incentives have begun to taper, a pronounced dip in housing stock means that demand continues to outweigh supply, and this imbalance should continue for some time to come.

“Going forward, the market will remain buoyant though the dynamics are already starting to shift.

“While the clamour in recent times has been for bigger properties with more outdoor space, we may see luxury apartments start to come back into vogue as the drift back to the office starts to gather pace in the big cities.

“In addition, we are still awaiting the return of international buyers which we expect to happen in the autumn, something that should prove a huge boost for Prime London which has been sluggish of late.

“In the meantime, first-time buyers finally have grounds for greater optimism as they continue to pay no Stamp Duty on properties less than £300,000 while others are now paying much more. This means the balance may finally be shifting back in their favour when bidding on more modestly priced homes, particularly with the added firepower of first-time buyers mortgages behind them.”

Lucy Pendleton, property expert at independent estate agent James Pendleton, comments: “The market’s minor monthly dip shows it was unmoved by the end of the most generous Stamp Duty discounts. Annual growth is roughly back to where it was in May, as prices continue to be pinned to the ceiling by a shortage of property hitting agents’ windows.

“This isn’t a market that agents or the public want to see because this absence of abodes is pushing the market into a doom loop of thinning supply. People are holding off selling their home because they lack all faith they will be able to find something they want to buy, therefore restricting the number of homes available even further.

“This dynamic supports prices but it can’t continue forever. Eventually this paucity of property will prove the trigger for a change of direction, partly because it lends more weight to the activity of first-time buyers who have tighter price pressures than those moving home higher up the chain.

“This tension will have to be released and could spell a rather unusual climax to the bull run, neatly reflecting its unusual beginnings last summer. We’ll look back on this period as one that completely defies the usual rules but basic economics will always win out in the end. Affordability pressures will eventually force the market into a reality check but first-time buyer support and low interest rates should prevent the boom from unwinding too rapidly.”