Posts with tag: general election

Election result preventing traditional house price surge

Published On: July 21, 2017 at 9:52 am

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The most recent analysis from buying agents Garrington Property Finders suggests that the General Election in June has so far failed to give the prime property market a boost.

This has gone against the trend seen in the last five General Elections.

Paralysis

According to the data, the post-election paralysis has been seen most prominently in London. The annual change in prime property prices per square foot here slipped by 7.1% in the last month, dropping from a 3.3% increase in May to a 3.8% decrease in June.

In addition, the number of transactions is also down, with the number of prime properties sold in London during June falling by 15.8% in comparison to May.

Data from June for the rest of England and Wales has yet to be published, although the capital’s Prime market is seen as a good indication of the results to follow. Should these trends be seen elsewhere, we will see a dramatic reversal of the more traditional post-election bounce seen in the UK’s prime property market.

Sales

Analysis of official Land Registry data shows that across England and Wales, sales of prime property increased by an average of 26% in the two months directly after the last five Elections.

In fact, the prime market has outpaced the non-prime market stretching back to Tony Blair’s victory in 1997.

The prime market is defined as the most expensive 10% of properties sold in a region in any one year. During the first six months of 2017, the prime market began strongly, with prices rising by 4% on average.

Election result preventing traditional house price surge

Election result preventing traditional house price surge

Uncertainty

Jonathan Hopper, Managing Director of Garrington Property Finders, observed: ‘This early snapshot of the post-election market confirms what many had feared – there has been no sudden relief rally. The Prime market tends to be the most sensitive to political and economic uncertainty, and the current dose of both is clearly having a cooling effect, especially in London. Britain hasn’t had a minority government since 1974, so the fragility of the new government’s mandate and ongoing concerns over Brexit are pushing the market into uncharted waters.’[1]

‘Yet for astute buyers those uncharted waters can teem with opportunity. Prime prices in London have softened considerably in the wake of the 2014 Stamp Duty increase and last year’s Brexit referendum. In that time we’ve seen a steady stream of buyers secure substantial discounts as anxious sellers adjust their expectations in return for the certainty of a sale,’ he continued.[1]

Concluding, Mr Hopper said: ‘Where London leads other regions tend to follow, and as the post-election fizzle spreads out from the capital, the next few months will provide some strong buying opportunities for Prime buyers across the country.’[1]

[1] http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/minority-government-puts-breaks-on-traditional-post-poll-house-price-surge.html

 

General Election result is deterring sellers

Published On: July 11, 2017 at 9:40 am

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The most recent report from online estate agents HouseSimple.com has shown that the unexpected result of last month’s Election has apparently put off property sellers.

Results from the investigation reveal that new property listings slipped by 1.9% month-on-month in June.

Lack of Confidence

Due to the result of the Election and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, it appears that the housing market is suffering from a distinct lack of confidence. Price growth is stalling across many regions and the forecasted spike in new listings has as yet not materialised.

Of the 100 towns and cities analysed by the HouseSimple report, 81% saw property supply fall during June, in comparison to May.

Dundee and Barnsley saw the largest fall in property listings, down by 48.1% and 39.3% respectively month-on-month.

From the few regions that actually saw increases, Lichfield and Hartlepool saw the most prominent gains, of 20.6% and 18.7% respectively.

London also bucked the trend, with supply rising by 5.3% across all boroughs.

General Election result is deterring sellers

General Election result is deterring sellers

Drought

Alex Gosling, CEO of online estate agents HouseSimple.com, noted: ‘The supply drought continues. The property market was hoping for a downpour of new stock in June, but the Conservatives crawling over the line failed to deliver the injection of confidence the market needed, and put paid to any chance of a late Spring bounce. Price growth has stalled, and sellers, it appears, are choosing to stay put, rather than accept marketing their properties at a lower price then they might have done a few months ago.’[1]

‘Sellers maybe need a dose of reality, because price growth slowing should not be the only reason to hold-off moving. The housing market overheated and it was inevitably going to cool at some point. If sellers are waiting for prices to go up again, that could be a long wait. If anything, homeowners should see this as a good climate to sell as long as they price correctly. If prices have dropped where they live, they are likely to have dropped, possibly by even more, in the area they’re planning to buy.’ Mr Gosling concluded. [1]

[1] http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/election-result-scares-off-sellers.html

 

More younger tenants likely to vote in future Elections

Published On: June 26, 2017 at 1:22 pm

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Following criticism of young voters supposedly not turning out to pledge a vote during the 2016 EU Referendum, new analysis suggests that more youngsters voted during the recent General Election.

Analysis from tenant referencing firm Rent4sure suggests that the size of the 18-24 age group currently not on the electoral roll has dropped by half during the last four years. In percentage terms, this was a drop from 4.9% to 2.5% -with this figure still falling.

Electorate

The analysis from Rent4sure looks at UK national referenced to rent property and shows that 98% of those in this category are now on the electoral roll. This was a rise of 2% from 2013.

Of this 98%, nearly one quarter are aged between 18-24, with over half aged between 25-39. Almost one fifth are aged between 40-64, with just 1.4% aged 65% or over.

More younger tenants likely to vote in future Elections

More younger tenants likely to vote in future Elections

Luke Burton, director at Rent4sure, observed: ‘New housing minister Alok Sharma would be wise to sit up and take note of the growing influence of the ‘renting youth.’[1]

‘Generation Rent is growing with an anticipated 24 per cent of households predicted to be living in private rental accommodation by 2021, according to recent research by Knight Frank. What’s more the under 40’s make up the largest proportion of private renters,’ he continued.[1]

Concluding, Mr Burton said: ‘The rental generation is looking for appropriate housing and this demand is growing. Mr Sharma has a challenge ahead to ensure appropriate housing is available to meet demand, with investment in Build To Rent being a large factor.’[1]

[1] https://www.lettingagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/6/younger-private-tenants-increasingly-likely-to-register-to-vote

 

Is it, ‘business as usual’ for the housing market?

Published On: June 13, 2017 at 11:55 am

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Last week’s shock General Election result has plunged the country into more uncertainty, with many peers concerned about the immediate future of the housing market in Britain.

Following Prime Minister May losing her Commons majority and with subsequent talks with the DUP ongoing, many observers are suggesting her days as PM are numbered.

‘Business as Usual’

However, despite the uncertainty, one leading housebuilder has suggested that there should be no reason why it shouldn’t be ‘business as usual’ for the housing market.

John Elliot, Managing Director of Millwood Designer Homes, predicted a Tory landslide. Instead, he was left to rue the result and is worried about the, ‘uncertainty it now brings for the future of the country and the Brexit negotiations.’[1]

Despite this, he maintains that the housing market should look to continue as usual.

Is it, 'business as usual' for the housing market?

Is it, ‘business as usual’ for the housing market?

Elliot observed: ‘Even though it’s early days, as far as I am aware, Theresa May will remain Prime Minister. I have not seen anything other than the statement issued by Downing Street to suggest otherwise and I can’t see this making much difference to our industry, as it stands. People still need homes and we need to keep building.’[1]

‘Had Corbyn been allowed to introduce the ‘garden tax’, I think that would have had a detrimental effect on the market, alongside his other polices on taxation,’ he continued.[1]

Concluding, he noted: ‘If Theresa May were to step down now, I am not sure who the best candidate it to lead the party and the country. My personal view, is that the one bit of stability should remain, is if Theresa May remains in office and continues to negotiate a good deal for the UK’s exit from the EU, and forges ahead with her policy to  build a million new homes between now and 2020, and another 500,000 by 2022.’[1]

[1] https://www.propertyinvestortoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/6/business-as-usual-for-uk-housing-industry-despite-election-uncertainty

What will the Election Result mean for the London Property Market?

Published On: June 12, 2017 at 8:14 am

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What will the Election Result mean for the London Property Market?

What will the Election Result mean for the London Property Market?

Friday’s election result may have come as a surprise to some, but what will it mean for the London property market?

We all awoke on Friday morning to the news of a hung parliament – all parties failed to achieve a majority government.

Theresa May then partnered up with the little-known DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) to form a new Government on Friday afternoon.

Jo Eccles, the Managing Director of buying and relocation agency Sourcing Property, explains what the election result may mean for the London property market: “The election result is going to create further uncertainty, which is likely to keep London housing activity at its current lower levels, certainly for the short-term. We especially expect it to deter overseas buyers from making a long-term commitment to London property, which will particularly impact the prime market.

“UK owner-occupier buyers will still carry on with their lives though, we saw this in the run-up to the election – none expressed concerns about the looming election campaign and it didn’t put off their decisions to buy property in order to upsize, move areas and so on. However, the uncertainty may delay non-necessity purchases, such as buy-to-let investments.”

She continues: “We are still experiencing companies moving very senior executives to London (less so with junior employees), but we expect the rental market to continue to be favoured versus buying for anyone relocating to the UK for a three to five-year period, particularly at the high end of the rental market, where Stamp Duty is putting people off making shorter-term purchases. At the lower end of the rental market, we are likely to see mid-level professionals continue to want break clauses in their tenancy agreements, to give them flexibility in these uncertain times.

“Sterling, at the time of writing, has plummeted, but even if there is a depreciation to come, I don’t think this will be enough to entice significant numbers of overseas buyers. We saw significant sterling falls after the Brexit vote, but the political uncertainty outweighed the currency saving benefit, so this is likely to be the case until stability returns.”

General Election- The Property Industry Reacts

Published On: June 9, 2017 at 9:49 am

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The results of the General Election are all but in, after a tumultuous night, particularly for the Conservatives.

In the end, the UK is once again left with a hung parliament, with Theresa May seemingly left with a considerable amount of egg on her face!

But just how will the result impact on the property industry moving forwards? Will we see another change at the top? Could jubilant Jezza head a minority Government?

Leading figures from the property industry have offered their reaction.

Uncertainty

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, observed: ‘A hung parliament will result in an extended period of uncertainty with decision-making kicked into the long grass. Theresa May is correct – we need a period of stability as that will quash uncertainty which is bad for the housing market – but it is not clear at the moment whether she can deliver it. Stability is crucial in enabling people to make big decisions such as buying and selling property.’

‘The hopelessness we are seeing on the ground about not being able to get on the housing ladder has come through. If there is one message that has come out of this election, it is that the young have voted overwhelmingly for change.’

‘Politicians will have to consider the needs of the young more than they have in the past which could mean more help for first-time buyers, perhaps extending Help to Buy so that it covers older properties as well as new build, dealing with affordability issues and more help on stamp duty.’

‘One thing all the parties agree on is that we need more housing so it has to be a priority for whichever formal or informal coalition is created.’[1]

Lack of Normality

Russell Quirk, founder and CEO of eMoov.co.uk, was also not impressed by the results, noting: ‘As we awake today to the opposite of a strong and stable administration but to a rather unexpected hung parliament, I fear that the property market’s post-election return to normality that I’d hoped for may be rather further away still.

Political instability breeds procrastination on the part of homebuyers and sellers and for over a year now we have seen the effects of that on volumes, if not so much prices, as a consequence of the EU vote and then the snap general election.

A hung parliament means that Theresa May does not have the mandate that she sought for herself and for a ‘hard Brexit’. Whilst the Conservatives may be able to form a minority government propped up by the DUP in Northern Ireland, we now face the serious prospect of the selection of a new Prime Minister and then, probably, a further general election in the autumn.

General Election- The Property Industry Reacts

General Election- The Property Industry Reacts

So whilst the UK voter may understandably develop electoral fatigue, transactions in the property market may also stay somewhat anaesthetised until it’s re-awoken by something more politically and economically decisive than we have seen over the past 24 hours.
In addition to the prospect of Theresa May being forced out for grabbing humiliation from the jaws of victory, we will also see yet another Housing Minister in post by next week given that Gavin Barwell has just lost his Croydon Central seat.  That’ll be our 6th Housing Minister in almost as many years.

Regardless, I suspect that the housing brief will take a back seat now, despite politicians’ promises in recent weeks, given the combined weight of negotiating Brexit, stabilising our economy, button-holing political support across the aisle on every vote and, inevitably, campaigning again for the next poll.’[1]

Richard Pike, sales and marketing director at Phoebus Software, also said: ‘The election result shows again that nothing is certain in politics.  What we needed was certainty through a majority, what we are left with is further uncertainty through a hung parliament.  The result  could affect  not only domestic policies but the whole Brexit process.’

‘The Conservatives need to form a Government in whatever way it can if it is to be ready for Brexit negotiations to start in ten days’ time and in order to stabilise the economy. Unfortunately until a new Government has bedded in, many areas that we as an industry wanted to see action on such as housing policy, may well take a back seat.’[1]

Confidence

John East, Director of KFH Land and New Homes said that the property market, ‘thrives on confidence,’ and that it is, ‘important the uncertainty of a hung parliament is quickly resolved and a clear strategy is set out to tackle housing shortfalls, particularly in London.’[1]

Carol Pawsey, Lettings Director at KFH, believes: ‘The spotlight is firmly on the rental sector as a key component in shoring up housing supply. The new government, however it is compiled, needs to ensure we have a balanced private rental sector that attracts investors and landlords to the market while looking after the long-term interests of the increasing number of tenants looking for quality long-term rental homes.’[1]

[1] http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/property-industry-reaction-to-election-result.html