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Em Morley

Industry reaction to the July Halifax House Price Index

The latest Halifax House Price Index reports that house prices have fallen for the fourth month in a row. However, there has been a surge in new mortgage enquiries.

The highlights of the Halifax House Price Index include:

  • On a monthly basis, house prices in June were 0.1% lower than in May 
  • In the latest quarter (April to June) house prices were 0.9% lower than in the preceding three months (January to March) 
  • House prices in June were 2.5% higher than in the same month a year earlier 

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, comments within the report“Average house prices fell by 0.1% in June as the UK property market continued to emerge from lockdown. 

“Though only a small decrease, it is notable as the first time since 2010 – when the housing market was struggling to gain traction following the shock of the global financial crisis – that prices have fallen for four months in a row. 

“Activity levels bounced back strongly in June, which is typically the busiest month for mortgage activity in the UK. New mortgage enquiries were up by 100% compared to May, and with prospective buyers also revisiting purchases previously put on hold, transaction volumes rose sharply compared to previous months. However, whilst encouraging, it remains too early to say if this level of activity will be sustained. 

“The near-term outlook points to a continuation of the recent modest downward trend in prices through the third quarter of the year, with sentiment indicators, based on surveys of both agents and households, currently at or around multi-year lows. 

“Of course, come the autumn, the macroeconomic landscape in the UK should be clearer and the scale of the impact of the pandemic on the labour market more apparent.

“We do expect greater downward pressure on prices in the medium-term, the extent of which will depend on the success of government support measures and the speed at which the economy can recover.” 

Managing Director of Barrows and Forrester, James Forrester, has commented: “Yet another contrasting medical examination of the UK property market and one that shows the impact of an industry-wide lockdown is still lingering with further monthly declines in house price growth.

“However, the positives are that prices remain higher on an annual basis despite the turbulent start to the year. This is a much better indicator of market health and one that should reassure the nation’s home sellers, as well as bolstering the surge of buyer demand that has already flooded the market since lockdown restrictions were eased. 

“We’re expecting to see a further boost in the form of a stamp duty holiday tomorrow, and while this has already drawn its critics, it will only act as a positive stimulus for the market in the long-term.”   

 Managing Director of Enness Global Mortgages, Hugh Wade-Jones, commented: “More positive news for the UK property market and hopefully the first of a double dose of good news this week.

“Unfortunately, it looks as though the top tier of the market will once again be shown the cold shoulder in terms of any stamp duty relief or otherwise. 

“However, we’ve seen a promising increase in market activity in recent months, and this has been driven of late by foreign buyers returning to the top tiers of the market, in particular. 

“While domestic activity remains the backbone of the UK property sector, it is this foreign investment that will help spur the market back to full health.

“Although it might take a little while longer to materialise at the top level, it bodes very well for the remainder of the year where overall house prices are concerned.”

Halifax House Price Index
Industry reaction to the July Halifax House Price Index

Director of Benham and Reeves, Marc von Grundherr, commented: “The potential announcement of a stamp duty holiday by the chancellor tomorrow should help lift market sentiment, certainly where buyer demand is concerned. Of course, some are already forecasting that many buyers will hold off now to benefit later, causing a slump in the market as a result.

“While a valid point, it’s unlikely to send a market that is comfortably shifting through the gears into full reverse. The transaction process can be a long one, and it is doubtful that the average buyer will jeopardise their bricks and mortar aspirations, simply to save a few thousand pounds in stamp duty.

“The flip side to this is that with such demand already returning to the market, postponing a purchase until October could see the price of your chosen property increase in value, exceeding the saving you might have made. So any buyers considering such an idea would be ill-advised to take the risk.”

Lucy Pendleton, property expert at independent estate agents James Pendleton, said: “The typically more bullish Halifax index hasn’t disappointed. People remain confident despite the pandemic but the biggest threat to the market at the moment is the posturing going on in government over a potential Stamp Duty tax break. 

“The market will seize up if this continues. Ministers more intent on teasing than leading either need to introduce it or ditch it. The flying of kites only encourages people to hold off with their move. 

“If they don’t provide clarity, the recovery in the market, which by the Halifax’s reckoning is still powering ahead, will be put in doubt. 

“Two things have so far characterised the residential market since it reopened in mid-May. First, there were the overzealous bargain hunters who came crashing in demanding huge discounts and were quickly beaten back.

“We’re not hearing from that type of buyer anymore. Second, we’ve noticed a lot of buyers and sellers who had been frustrated by the pandemic’s shut down of the country showing huge determination to now get on with their move.

“It just goes to show that moving home is a marathon and not a sprint for most people, a decision often years in the making, and that is underpinning the annual growth still being registered by the Halifax in June.

“This confidence and robust overall demand bodes well for transaction volumes, and sensible offers provide some clue that a broad price correction is not on the cards at the moment.”

Mary-Anne Bowring, group managing director at Ringley and creator of automated lettings platform, PlanetRent, said: “Today’s figures show potential green shoots of recovery with rising mortgage enquiries although it is clear lockdown and prolonged uncertainty are still having their effect and with no clear route out the pandemic yet, the for-sale market is likely to be subdued as buyers and sellers act cautiously and put off major financial decisions. 

“This is why government policies aimed at restimulating the housing market need to look beyond first-time buyers and existing owner-occupiers and tap into new sources of demand like buy to let landlords by scrapping the stamp duty surcharge they face. 

“With only the private sector predicted to keep on growing and the disruption caused by Coronavirus likely to cause a short-term spike in rental demand, the government could kill two birds with one stone by driving activity and meeting a growing housing need.

“Landlords are also an important source of development finance for housebuilders through off-plan sales and so cutting SDLT for buy to let investors could help housebuilding recover too.”

Young renters in need of help as furlough scheme winds down

Published On: July 9, 2020 at 8:31 am

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The National Residential Landlords Association (NRLA) is concerned that young people in private rented housing are particularly vulnerable to potentially losing their jobs, as the furlough scheme scales down.

NRLA recently commissioned a poll of 2,027 tenants in England and Wales. The results show that 24% of private renters aged 16-24 and 27% of those aged 25-34 are reliant on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.

In August the scheme will introduce the requirement for employers to pay National Insurance and pension contributions. The Government’s support of 80% of wages will fall to 70% in September and then to 60% in October.

The figures also highlight that the incomes of young renters have been affected the most. 56% of 16 to 24-year-olds and 54% of 25 to 34-year-olds responded that their incomes had not been affected as a result. In comparison, this is 62% for 55 to 64-year-olds, 76% for those aged 65 to 74, and 94% for those over the age of 74.

However, 84% of those aged 16 to 24 and 87% of those aged 25 to 34 said that they have been able to make rent payments as usual. The NRLA points at that this shows how reliant they are on support from the Government. It might be that many young renters will struggle to afford to pay their rent as the furlough scheme winds down.

Ahead of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme being phased out, the NRLA together with the homeless charities Crisis and Centrepoint are calling on the Government to boost the safety net available to young renters in three ways:

1.    Following the decision by the Government to increase the Local Housing Allowance (LHA) to cover the bottom 30% of rents in any given area, Ministers should go further by suspending the benefit cap. The Social Security Advisory Committee has warned that the full value of the extra support already provided by the Government is not benefiting all claimants because of the benefit cap, particularly in areas with high rental costs.

2.    Advance loans provided to Universal Credit claimants to cover the five-week waiting period to receive the first payment of the Credit should be converted to grants, ending the debt that is baked into the system.

3.    Changes should be made to the Shared Accommodation Rate (SAR) which limits the amount that those under the age of 35 can access in housing support to the cost of renting a room in a shared house. This should include immediately bringing forward plans announced in the Budget earlier this year to extend exemptions from the SAR to include rough sleepers aged 16-24, care leavers up to the age of 25, and victims of domestic abuse and human trafficking. The Government should also give serious consideration to accepting the recommendations of the Social Security Advisory Committee to scrap the Shared Accommodation Rate for all under 35s.

Ben Beadle, Chief Executive of the NRLA, comments: “Young renters have borne the brunt of the COVID crisis. Many have relied on the furlough scheme to enable them to pay their rent. As this support reduces there is a serious danger that they will struggle to meet their payments.  

“The vast majority of landlords approached for help by their tenants have responded positively and that will continue to be the case as they do all they can to sustain tenancies.

“But both tenants and landlords need the security of knowing rents can continue to be paid, just as with mortgages and rents for social housing.  Plans need to be made to ensure that there will be adequate support in place to enable all tenants to continue to afford their housing costs.”

Seyi Obakin, chief executive of youth homelessness charity Centrepoint, said: “There is now a wealth of evidence that the younger you are, the greater the economic impact of the pandemic will be. 

“The number of young people contacting Centrepoint’s helpline has increased by almost 50% since before the pandemic and our supported accommodation is stretched, but we’ve yet to see clear leadership from ministers on how they soften the negative effects.

“That is why we urgently need to see more government money to help with renting and living costs for those young people facing unemployment or reduced incomes and a better support package to help those newly out of work stay economically active. 

“There are no simple solutions here, but business as usual is not good enough. We cannot leave young people to navigate this post-lockdown world alone.”

Jon Sparkes, Crisis Chief Executive, said: “In our society, everyone should be able to rent a safe, affordable home where they can thrive. So, it’s extremely worrying that over the coming months we may see a wave of young people losing their homes, as government support is rolled back unless further action is taken. 

“We know that across the country thousands of young people are bracing themselves for the anxious months ahead as they struggle to pay high rents on reduced hours and low wages. This is set to become all the worse when the eviction ban comes to an end next month.

“It’s crucial that we now focus our attention on ensuring that thousands of renters get the help they need to stop them from being swept into homelessness. That’s why we’re urging the government to permanently invest in housing benefit and suspend the benefit cap so that people can afford a safe and secure home.”

Stamp Duty holiday plans announced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak

Published On: July 8, 2020 at 12:54 pm

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Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced plans for a Stamp Duty holiday in the 2020 summer statement. This will make most homebuyers exempt from paying any Stamp Duty as part of plans to kick-start Britain’s economic recovery.

The following industry responses have been released:

Mary-Anne Bowring, group managing director at Ringley and creator of automated lettings platform PlanetRent, says: “The Chancellor’s proposals to exempt most homebuyers from paying any Stamp Duty under plans to kick-start Britain’s economic recovery is welcome news.

“A Stamp Duty holiday would no doubt cause a rush of transactions and help breathe life into a housing market that has been put into deep freeze in an effort to battle coronavirus. 

“The government should be looking at long-term solutions as well as short-term sticking plasters when it comes to fixing the UK housing market.

“Millions of Brits were already renting, and that number was predicted to grow anyway with or without coronavirus. The disruption caused by coronavirus will likely see rental demand grow, as banks squeeze potential buyers with tighter lending restrictions and people put off buying or selling a home as it becomes clearer COVID-19 has caused continued uncertainty and disruption in the medium term.

“Eliminating additional Stamp Duty for buy-to-let investors would help stimulate the supply of rental homes while also driving wider activity in the housing market. Landlords are a crucial source of development finance through off-plan sales and will help support getting Britain building again.”

Mark Arnold, CEO, Kensington Mortgages, comments: “If the housing market is working properly, that has a massive impact on the rest of the economy – so this potentially is a big boost. A Stamp Duty holiday is a huge market change and this has never happened before. 

“First-time buyers, second steppers and older homeowners will all benefit. Even before lockdown, there was a clear stagnation in housing activity on those higher up the property ladder.

“Extending the threshold to £500k frees up larger properties for growing families and enables the next generation of homebuyers to step onto or even up the ladder. Buyers will make a significant tax saving and this acts as a large incentive to keep all parts of the housing cycle moving in some of the most crucial summer months.”

Mark Hayward, Chief Executive of NAEA Propertymark, comments: “Following our engagement with HMT and MHCLG over the past few months, we welcome the Chancellor’s announcement this afternoon that he will be raising the threshold at which buyers will pay Stamp Duty to £500,000. 

“This a is a welcome commitment by the government and we are glad that they have listened to our calls to help sustain the property market following lockdown. These measures will enable people looking to buy a home to have the confidence and stability to be able to move forward with their purchase, which in turn will have a knock-on effect on the wider economy as people buy white goods and furniture. 

“The market is moving well at the moment, however once furlough has ceased and the anticipated recession hits, the market might well need further financial impetus, therefore it is right that the sector is given the support and tools it needs to rebound over the next 9 months.”

Marc von Grundherr, Director for Benham and Reeves, comments: “84% of transactions made in the last six months would have seen the amount owed in Stamp Duty eradicated as a result of today’s announcement, so there’s no denying that this should bring about a monumental boost for homebuyers going forward.  

“However, some may also argue that it’s not before time. Stamp Duty is simply an additional financial barrier when buying and one that does little more than filling the government’s pockets.

“While the market has weathered the storm of pandemic price decline so far, this latest move should help keep property values buoyant. Although, it is disappointing to see yet another government initiative that focusses on fuelling demand instead of addressing housing supply.”

James Forrester, Managing Director of Barrows and Forrester, says: “A bold move by the chancellor today and one that will no doubt stoke the fires of homebuyer demand with such a large proportion of those transacting due to benefit. 

This shot in the arm should ensure top-line demand and price growth remain immune to any unseasonal downward trends and implementing this initiative from the get-go avoids any short-term decline in transactions.

The only criticism is, perhaps, that the government has once again focussed on fuelling demand rather than addressing the more pressing issue of housing supply. While this will help boost house prices, it will do little to address the supply and demand imbalance and the problem of affordability that many are already facing.”

Islay Robinson, group CEO of Enness Global Mortgages, says: “The government has mostly ignored the top end of the market in recent years and this has had a detrimental impact on demand and property values in the prime London market, in particular.  

“Today has been much of the same and although high-end homebuyers will enjoy some form of discount where Stamp Duty is concerned, it’s looking unlikely that this will apply to second homes and they certainly won’t be getting any richer thanks to Rishi.  

“In fact, this archaic tax continues to leave a bad taste in the mouth of prime buyers who are paying huge sums in addition to the value of their chosen property, and it’s about time this government money grab is abolished altogether.”

stamp duty holiday
Stamp Duty holiday plans announced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak

Phil Bailey, Sales Director for mortgage tech provider Twenty7Tec, says: “We hope that the housing market will get the stimulus it needs from the Chancellor’s announcement on Stamp Duty. For us to have a housing-led recovery, we need first time buyers in the market and this measure will go some way to helping alleviate the level of funding that they need to get onto the property ladder. 

“However, it’s not a perfect solution. There’s a lack of mortgage products in the market in the 90%+ LTV range as lenders have adjusted for their risks and their own lending capacity. This means that deposit levels have, effectively, gone from 5% to 15%. 

“Previously, this gap has been filled by the bank of mum and dad, but the last few months have eaten away at their savings and possibly their attitude to taking on new investments. There’s also less housing stock on the market, which means it’s a seller’s market.

“Unfortunately, this Stamp Duty holiday won’t really help with any of these points. In our view, it’ll drive a surge in demand, but it’s more than likely going to support people to buy bigger than helping those who are struggling to get onto the property ladder. The additional demand caused by this could push house prices up or see them stay the same and not drop as expected later this year. 

“Speaking to lenders and intermediaries this week, there were two real worries in the market about this Stamp Duty announcement. First, that it has previously been mooted and not happened so people were questioning if it would happen this time. Second that it might be delayed until later in the year, which would induce an unnecessary halt in a housing-led recovery. 

‘Thankfully, the current Chancellor is someone who seems capable of getting things done and at pace. We’ll see what the data says about a continued recovery over the next few days and weeks.”

Elisabeth Kohlbach, CEO of Skwire, comments: “Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s Stamp Duty change is a welcome shot in the arm for an under pressure property market and much-needed relief for buyers. But it does not go far enough.

“The relief will overwhelmingly help buyers in London and the South East, where property prices are highest, in terms of the savings they will make on a property, with many housing transactions in the regions already below the Stamp Duty threshold. So he needs to think again if he wants to help the Prime Minister’s Red Wall regions too.

“While it is right that the initiative is set to overwhelmingly help struggling first-time buyers, the withdrawal of low-value deposits by lenders and the drought of suitable mortgage offers needs to be addressed too if this initiative is going to help revive the housing market.

“He should also consider at least a temporary cut in Stamp Duty on higher-value properties. This market segment has been sluggish since Stamp Duty was raised, and the chain of transactions more expensive sales generate, as well as the advisory, agent, legal and other fees they produce, could help provide a short-an economic boost when it is most needed.

“The Chancellor’s move also only affects property buyers, and given that the PRS sector is a growing part of the UK’s housing mix and redundancies are on the rise, he should carefully monitor what impact the lifting of the Government’s eviction ban in August will have on tenants and be prepared to act if needed.

“If Sunak wants the housing market back on his feet, he should look at the sector as a whole and push through measures that benefit both buyers and renters alike.

Matthew McDwyer, founder of Bricks&Logic, says: “At Bricks&Logic, we’ve been continuously analysing London house prices since the easing of lockdown measures allowed viewings to start again.

“In the first month, asking prices have remained stable across the capital and agents report brisk business. We know that historically, Government policy is the single biggest driving factor for house prices and the last significant Stamp Duty change was followed by substantial changes in London house prices, particularly at the cheaper end of the market.

“Confirmation of the rumoured Stamp Duty holiday is likely to provide a shot in the arm for the property market. However, while this will possibly stimulate movement at the lower end of the market it is unlikely to have too significant impact on the wider London market but will boost movement outside the capital.”

Jeremy Raj, head of Residential Property at Irwin Mitchell, comments: “The Chancellor prefaced his announcement by explaining how key the residential property market and the housebuilding sector are in relation to the confidence and strength of the economy overall. There is no doubt that the recent uncertainties and practical difficulties created by lockdown have had a massively detrimental effect.

“The changes announced to SDLT today went further than most within the industry had dared hope. With an immediate increase in the tax-free band to £500,000 for a fixed period until 31 March 2021, there will be a real boost to the sector.

“There will also be widespread relief that the implementation has not been delayed until the autumn, which would potentially have stalled the market entirely.

“It is important to note that while the effect on the London market will be minimal, the vast majority of conveyancing transactions throughout the country will see a significant and immediate bonus effect, that should encourage greater activity.

“We can however expect a number of interesting discussions regarding how this windfall is to be shared between buyers and sellers. Clearly, anybody that completed their transaction within the last month or two will be rightly upset to have missed out. It also remains to be seen whether the market reacts by adjusting prices overall, or leaves the windfall with buyers.

“Overall, however, this is a hugely welcome announcement for housebuilders, the residential property industry, homeowners, and potential homeowners.”

Franz Doerr, CEO of flatfair, says: “The government’s Stamp Duty holiday is welcome news for the housing market overall, but there needs to be more clarity on what this will mean for buy-to-let landlords. 

“Thousands of landlords have already left the sector in recent years, and support to help increase the number of homes available for rent will be sorely needed with the numbers of renters expected to increase as incomes plummet and mortgages become harder to get thanks to the economic impact of Covid-19.

“The government needs to realise that homeownership at all costs is no longer sustainable, and should have announced more to support both renters and landlords.”

Landlord and lettings organisations take action to tackle rent arrears

Following research published by Shelter on rent arrears caused by the effects of COVID-19, the National Residential Landlords Associations (NRLA) has responded by saying they will do all they can to sustain tenancies. 

Chris Norris, Policy Director for the NRLA said: “Throughout the lockdown, our surveys show that the vast majority of landlords have been doing all they can to keep people in their homes. 

“Our recently published guidance supports tenants and landlords to hold discussions about how to address rent arrears and sustain tenancies.

“It is important though to distinguish between tenants affected by COVID-19 and those who were building rent arrears before lockdown, sometimes for several months and sometimes wilfully. 

“When the courts re-start hearing possession cases the latter should be the priority along with instances where tenants are committing anti-social behaviour or domestic abuse.”

The NRLA has released the following case studies:

Mrs R

Mrs R is a single parent who finds herself potentially unemployed as a new job she was about to start fell through due to the pandemic. She does not make any money on the property as it is in negative equity and has kept rent levels the same for a decade.

She submitted court papers to repossess a property because a tenant had not paid rent since around November last year and has convictions for harassing the neighbours. The evictions ban means that the tenant continues to stay in the property, living without paying any rent despite him receiving furlough money.

Peter (not his real name)

Peter had to begin evictions proceedings in January against one of his tenants due to the non-payment of rent, a process which has been halted due to the repossessions ban.

Peter says of the tenant: “He has continually been anti-social, paid little rent, although the application for direct payment was quick, easy and successful. Arrears still exist, as does the antisocial behaviour. He also admits people into the house, parties and socialising daily…This tenant is aware that eviction is not possible until an order is made and bailiffs attend. He is hiding and protected behind all Covid laws…it’s been negative, disruptive, anti-social and potentially dangerous to tenants in my case. Ministers should allow evictions for specific cases.”

In partnership with the Chartered Institute of Housing, The Property Redress Scheme, My Deposits, The Tenancy Deposit Scheme, and ARLA Propertymark, the NRLA has launch guidance to help prevent rent arrears. It supplies support for both landlords and tenants.

The organisations have released the following joint statement: “COVID-19 has posed significant challenges for both tenants and landlords. As a group we are committed to doing everything possible to sustain tenancies both through and beyond this period of crisis.

“The guidance being launched today has an important role to play in achieving this and we encourage all tenants and landlords to work through it together in a spirit of positive co-operation.” 

Possession cases confirmed to continue from 24th August

Published On: July 7, 2020 at 8:02 am

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A confirmation has come from a government Minister that the courts will begin to hear possession cases from 24th August, reports the National Residential Landlords Association (NRLA).

Responding to a series of parliamentary questions, Lord Greenhalgh, a Minister at the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government has said that from the 24th August “the courts will begin to process possession cases again”.

By this date it will have been five months since the ban on evictions was originally put in place. This was to provide more security for renters during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the NRLA has recently reported that this ban has also caused more of a struggle to protect victims of domestic abuse.

The Minister argued that this would be “an important step towards ending the lockdown and will protect landlords’ important right to regain their property.” He reiterated, however, that work is ongoing to ensure “the most vulnerable tenants can get the help they need when possession cases resume.”

He also has confirmed that under plans to end Section 21 repossessions as part of the Renters’ Reform Bill, Ministers want to ensure that “landlords are able to swiftly and smoothly regain their property through the courts where they have a legitimate reason to do so.”

Ben Beadle, Chief Executive of the National Residential Landlords Association, said: “The Minister’s comments provide greater certainty for the rental market. We continue to work hard with landlords and tenants to sustain tenancies wherever possible. In the vast majority of cases, this is happening.

“It is vital however that swift action can be taken against those tenants committing anti-social behaviour or domestic violence.  We are calling also for priority to be given to cases where possession orders were granted prior to lockdown or where rent arrears have nothing to do with the COVID pandemic.”

David Cox, Chief Executive of ARLA Propertymark, has also commented on the announcement: “We’re very pleased to hear that from 24th August courts will be re-opening and can begin to process the backlog of possession cases. 

“We have previously expressed our concern to the Secretary of State for Justice that there could be as many as 62,000 ‘business as usual’ landlord possession claims to be processed across England and Wales so having clarity on when these can be handled is extremely encouraging for landlords and the sector.”

Best UK areas for house price growth and rental yields, according to Howsy

Published On: July 6, 2020 at 8:11 am

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Categories: Landlord News

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Lettings management platform Howsy has looked at which areas in the UK have been most profitable for rental yields and house price increases over the last year.

The results show:

  • Across the UK, the research shows that house prices are up 2% annually, compared to rental yields at 5%.
  • London has seen an increase of 5% to property values and an average rental yield of 4%.
  • The North West and South West saw a house price increase of 3% and 4% respectively. Rental yields are at 5% and 4% respectively.
  • Scotland is the nation home to the highest average rental yield, at 6%.
  • Northern Ireland has the highest annual house price growth

The full results are in the below tables:

Primary level – nations

rental yields

Secondary level – regions

rental yields

Rankings – highest combination value

rental yields

Founder and CEO of Howsy, Calum Brannan, commented: “As a landlord, it can be easy to get bogged down in the almost immediate financial viability of a buy-to-let investment. Understandable, given the unpredictability of house price growth in the long-term and so the rental yield available is often the only current data available during the decision-making process.

“However, there are plenty of areas across the UK that might not present the best yields nationally but have delivered a substantially larger return where house price growth is concerned. 

As the figures show, this isn’t restricted to one area of the market, and this is certainly something to be considered when investing. For the majority of landlords, their portfolio is their pension pot and so while ongoing rental income is essential, keeping an eye on cashing out and the overall value of your portfolio when you do is also advised.”