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Em Morley

One in Four Young Londoners Plan to Move out of the Capital

Published On: July 19, 2017 at 8:11 am

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One in four young Londoners are planning to buy their first home outside of the capital, according to a new survey into the sentiment of the region’s young residents.

The cost of living was the main reason cited by 27% of respondents, who believe that it would be too expensive to purchase their first home in the capital.

A further 6% of 25-34-year-old Londoners said they would put down roots elsewhere to give themselves and their future families a better quality of life. Another 8% of the 2,007 young Londoners questioned plan to move out of the capital for “other reasons”.

Excluding the 42% of respondents who answered, “I haven’t thought about this yet”, the results were even stronger. A total of 74% said they will buy their first home outside of London for one of the above reasons.

One in Four Young Londoners Plan to Move out of the Capital

One in Four Young Londoners Plan to Move out of the Capital

However, one in ten young Londoners said their love for the city would keep them there, while 4% cited “other reasons” as the main factor for staying in the Big Smoke.

The Director of Online Mortgage Advisor, which commissioned the survey, David Bird, says: “The stats from this survey evidence the sentiment that we’ve recognised in our own customers over the past couple of years. The number of first time buyers coming to us with enquiries about mortgages on properties outside the capital is on the rise, and we expect to see this continue as more and more people consider themselves to be priced out of London.

“In light of these results, we’ve created a tool called Is The Grass Greener?, which compares every single UK city, as well as London boroughs, to help first time buyers discover where they can get the most for their money and a quality of life that suits them. We’ve analysed both Government data and national statistics on a number of factors, including house price, crime rate, schooling standards and even the price of a pint!”

Using the tool, prospective first time buyers can see that Liverpool beats Wandsworth – a London borough with a population that is predominantly in its 30s – on statistics such as house prices, average first time buyer house price and cost of living. Manchester also has an average house price that is £429,201 cheaper than Wandsworth’s and has a higher capital growth rate.

The London Borough of Lambeth, which has a similar age demographic to Wandsworth, loses out to other cities, including Bristol, which has a much better crime and safety rate, along with lower petrol prices. According to UKCrimeStats, Bristol has a crime rate of 7.28, while Lambeth’s score is 15.16. This is based on crimes per 1,000 resident individuals.

Mark Homer, the Co-Founder of property education firm Progressive Property, comments: “Many younger Londoners want to live outside the capital as house prices become more detached from incomes, meaning that monthly payments and the deposit required to obtain a mortgage makes living in the capital unaffordable. This, coupled with the fact that many areas around London are still playing catch up with property prices, which have not risen as much since the credit crunch in areas around London as they have within, making these areas more affordable.

“Train services are also becoming quicker, with the East Coast Main Line, Crossrail and HS2 reducing journey times to the city, making commuting a viable option even from locations which were previously discounted as commuter locations. As the population of London grows, this trend is likely to continue, meaning areas surrounding London are likely to experience higher than average house price growth.”

Rose Jinks, of Landlord News and Just Landlords, explains how the change is affecting the private rental sector: “It’s not only first time buyers that are leaving the capital; landlords too are looking to other parts of the UK for high tenant demand and better rental yields.

“This should mean that those moving from London to other thriving cities should find an abundance of suitable rental properties before they can get onto the housing ladder themselves. Investing in large cities outside of the capital can therefore provide a win-win situation for all involved in the property market.”

However, she urges: “As ever, we encourage all landlords that provide rental housing to consider their tenants when setting rent prices, keeping the property safe and complying with rules and regulations governing the private rental sector. This will drastically improve the lives of those unable to buy their own homes.”

Flat fee mortgages for buy-to-let at record lows

Published On: July 18, 2017 at 1:40 pm

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The most recent data released from Mortgages for Business shows that flat fees for buy-to-let mortgages have dropped to a new low.

These fees fell by over 5% in the second quarter of 2017, from £1,446 to £1,370.

Fees

However, percentage based fees are now becoming more common with lenders. This is a good way of keeping interest rates low, while still letting profits to scale with larger loans.

Percentage-based fees now apply to 48% of the total number of buy-to-let mortgage products, having now overtaken flat fees in terms of product availability since the start of 2017.

In fact, these products have risen in number in every quarter since Q2 2016.

With percentage-based fees becoming more common, the market has seen a reduction in the availability of fee-free options. Now, just 11% of buy-to-let mortgage products have no arranged fees – a fall from 15% in the opening quarter of the year.

Flat fee mortgages for buy-to-let at record lows

Flat fee mortgages for buy-to-let at record lows

Exceptional Lows

Steve Olejnik, COO of Mortgages for Business, observed: ‘With interest rates still at exceptional lows, it’s all the more important to make sure you look at any additional charges when taking a buy-to-let mortgage. It is therefore promising to see a reduction in the average flat fee charged for mortgage products.’[1]

[1] http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/landlords/btl-flat-fees-at-new-record-low.html

 

 

Outer London boroughs driving property price growth in the capital

Published On: July 18, 2017 at 10:53 am

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Property prices in London have started to show a recovery since the economic downturn, with prices in some regions doubling during the period.

This has been driven by growth in outer boroughs, according to new research released by Lloyds Bank.

Rises

Average property prices in Greater London have risen by 59% from £362,641 in 2009 to £578,381 in 2016. This was in comparison to growth of 31% across England and Wales as a whole during the same timeframe.

In the City of London, prices have doubled since 2009 to £908,759. This was closely followed by the borough of Waltham Forest, which saw a rise of 97% to £433,105.

On the other hand, Tower Hamlets has seen the worst performance in the capital since the financial crisis, with average property prices rising by 54% between 2009-2016.

Prime Stagnation

The capital’s prime boroughs of the City of London, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea saw an average increase of 80% between 2009-2014. However, there has been only small growth during the last two years.

Prices in the City of London almost doubled between 2009-2014, from £455,020 to £894,046 – a rise of 97%. Values also rose by 86% in Westminster and by 74% in Kensington and Chelsea. Since then, prices have barely shifted, with a rise of just 2% in City of London and Westminster.

Indeed, the largest growth in the last two years has been seen in London’s outer boroughs. These regions have recorded typical growth of 19% over the period, in comparison to just 4% for prime boroughs and 12% for inner boroughs. 9 of the top 10 growth areas during the same two-year period are within outer boroughs.

Outer London boroughs driving property price growth in the capital

Outer London boroughs driving property price growth in the capital

Olympic Gains

Newham and Barking and Dagenham, the two boroughs most impacted by the financial downturn, are now recording substantial growth. The Lloyds report suggests that this is due largely to the regeneration of the regions following the magnificent 2012 Olympic Games.

Average house prices have increased from £269,529 in 2014 to £356,638 in 2016- an increase of 32%. Barking and Dagenham saw an increase of 32%, to £285,129.

Andy Mason, Mortgage Director at Lloyds Bank, said: ‘The financial crisis saw average house prices in London generally remain stable during 2007 and 2009. Following the crisis, the growth in average prices in prime boroughs outpaced other areas in London by nearly double to create its own distinct market.’[1]

‘More recently, our analysis is showing house price growth in outer London boroughs is increasing at a greater pace than inner London boroughs. Average house prices in the most expensive areas are starting to flatten, whereas London’s most affordable areas are showing healthy growth,’ he continued.[1]

Concluding, Mr Mason observed:’ A possible explanation for this is the ongoing legacy from the 2012 Olympic Games and that outer borough areas like Newham will benefit from the Crossrail link to the City due for completion at the end of 2019.’[1]

[1] http://www.propertywire.com/news/uk/prices-london-recovered-economic-downturn-led-outer-boroughs/

 

House Prices still Rising by over 25% in Parts of the Country, Show Official Figures

Published On: July 18, 2017 at 9:13 am

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The Land Registry and Office for National Statistics (ONS) have released their latest House Price Index, for May 2017, showing that property values are still rising by over 25% in some parts of the country.

On an annual basis, the Orkney Islands recorded the largest growth of all areas, at a whopping 25.16%, followed by 17.09% in Kensington and Chelsea, and 15.64% in Maldon.

Month-on-month, the greatest increase in house prices was recorded in Scarborough, where values were up by 6.63% between April and May. East Ayrshire (6.44%) and Kensington and Chelsea (6.02%) were close behind.

However, some areas are recording notable decreases in property values, with average house prices in the Western Isles down by 17.96% on May 2016, while the Shetland Islands (14.68%) and the City of Aberdeen (7.77%) also saw significant declines.

On a monthly basis, the Shetland Islands again recorded substantial drops, at an average of 6.79%, followed by Pendle (5.52%) and the Isle of Anglesey (5.38%).

House Prices still Rising by over 25% in Parts of the Country, Show Official Figures

House Prices still Rising by over 25% in Parts of the Country, Show Official Figures

Thanks to another month of strong growth, Kensington and Chelsea remains the most expensive place in the country to buy a property, at an average price of £1,501,966.

Outside of London, South Buckinghamshire takes the crown, with an average property value of £617,252.

Unsurprisingly, Burnley is the cheapest place to purchase a home in the country, at just £77,525.

Russell Quirk, the Founder and CEO of online estate agent eMoov.co.uk, has commented on the figures: “The latest Government figures show that where actual property sale completions are concerned, the market maintained a slight upward trend in May, up 0.5%, ahead of June’s election, whereas mortgage approval data from the likes of Nationwide and Halifax showed a slow in pace in the same time period.

“Although this provides two slightly contrasting views of the UK market, it makes sense that those in the middle of the sale would move quickly to push it through before any detrimental election impact on their property value occurs, whilst those looking to buy a property would put their mortgage application on ice until the political storm clouds had passed.”

He looks ahead: “The UK property market at present is as unpredictable as the economic and political landscapes that are influencing its buyer and seller demand.

“But whilst these top line figures paint a picture of a marginally declining market, it is important to note that annual growth is still up and there are still areas of the nation performing very well where property price growth is concerned.

“In the current UK property raffle, homeowners in the Shetland Islands, Pendle and the Isle of Anglesey will be going home rather annoyed that their property has seen the largest monthly fall in value. However, those in Scarborough, East Ayrshire, and Kensington and Chelsea will be delighted that their purchase has materialised into first place property price growth.”

The Senior Economist at PwC, Richard Snook, also responds to the data: “Today’s housing market data from the ONS and Land Registry shows a gradual slowdown of house price growth, in line with our expectations that growth in 2017 will be around half that of 2016.

“House price inflation fell back to 4.7% in the year to May, from a downwardly revised 5.3% in April (initially reported as 5.6%), taking May’s average UK price to £220,700.”

He continues: “Today’s figures are the first to be released since we published our latest housing market projections in the UK Economic Outlook. Our main scenario anticipates a softening of the market over the year, with house price inflation falling from 7% in 2016 to 3.7% in 2017. We expect London to be one of the UK’s worst performing regions, achieving price growth of just 2.8% in 2017. The key drivers of this slowdown are uncertainty related to Brexit and a softening in the economic outlook.

“The latest regional data is showing the strongest performance in East Anglia and the East Midlands, which registered annual growth of 7.5% and 7.2% in May respectively.”

And finally, the CEO and Co-Founder of buy-to-let specialist lender Landbay, John Goodall, concludes: “Against a backdrop of increased political and economic uncertainty, house prices have slowed in their march upwards, suggesting that buyers are starting to feel the pressure of falling real wages and entering the market in fewer numbers. But demand is only half of the story; insufficient housebuilding continues to restrict the number of available homes for sale, which may not be creating house price pressure at the moment, but will when demand begins to pick up again.

“While the pace of house price growth may have slowed, house prices still continue to rise, ultimately meaning that fewer people can afford to buy, which can only place greater pressure on the UK’s rental sector. For that reason, it’s essential that new construction is planned across all tenures, so that rents don’t escalate to the point where they’re inhibiting aspiring homeowners’ ability to save for a deposit. Quite simply, we need to build more purpose-built rental homes to support those hoping to take their first steps onto the property ladder.”

UK rents rise by 1.1% year-on-year to June

Published On: July 18, 2017 at 8:39 am

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The average price of a new let in the UK increased by 1.1% year-on-year to June, according to the most recent figures released by Countrywide.

This has taken the average rent of a new let in Britain to £950pcm.

Falls

Countrywide’s research shows that London was the only region to see rents slide year-on-year – falling by 0.8%. On the other hand, the South West saw the strongest rental growth of 4.6%, which was the largest annual rise of any region covered by the research since November 2015.

By region, the average year-on-year rental figures for new lets in June were:

  • Greater London: Average rent £1,673 – down 0.8%
  • East of England: £931 – up 2.8%
  • South East England: £1,022 – up 1.1%
  • South West England: £786 – up 4.6%
  • Midlands: £665 – up 2.3%
  • North: £628 – up 2.3%
  • Scotland: £632 – up 1.4%
  • Wales: £645 – up 0.1%
Rents rise by 1.1% year-on-year to June

Rents rise by 1.1% year-on-year to June

London Drop

Johnny Morris, Countrywide’s head of research, observed: ‘Falls in London were off-set by higher growth across the rest of the country. The fall in the capital was driven by lower rents in the outer areas of London as the ripple effect from falling rents in Central London continues.’[1]

[1] https://www.lettingagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/7/modest-1-1-rise-in-average-rents-in-past-year-says-countrywide

 

 

Brexit Uncertainty is Biting UK GDP and Housing Growth, Reports PwC

Published On: July 18, 2017 at 8:14 am

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In its latest UK Economic Outlook, PwC forecasts that Brexit uncertainty is starting to bite UK GDP and housing growth.

UK GDP growth will slow from 1.8% in 2016 to around 1.5% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018, according to the firm’s latest projections.

This is due to slower consumer spending growth and the drag on business investment, due to ongoing political and economic uncertainty relating to the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.

While UK economic growth held up better than expected in the six months following the Brexit vote, growth slowed in the first half of this year, as inflation rose sharply, which squeezed household spending power.

PwC expects consumer spending growth to continue to moderate during 2017-18, as inflation eats into real spending power and wage growth remains subdued, despite record employment rates. So far, consumers have offset this in part through higher borrowing, but there are limits to how much further this can go, as household savings ratios have already dropped to very low levels. On the other hand, the weak pound should also have some offsetting benefits for net exports, as will a stronger global economy.

Brexit Uncertainty is Biting UK GDP and Housing Growth, Reports PwC

Brexit Uncertainty is Biting UK GDP and Housing Growth, Reports PwC

The Chief Economist at PwC, John Hawksworth, explains: “Brexit-related uncertainty may hold back business investment, but this should be partly offset by planned rises in public investment. Fiscal policy could also be further relaxed in the 2017 Autumn Budget to offset the ongoing real squeeze on household spending power.

“There are still downside risks relating to Brexit, but there are also upside possibilities if negotiations go smoothly and the recent eurozone economic recovery continues. We expect the UK to suffer a moderate slowdown, not a recession, but businesses should be monitoring this and making contingency plans.”

Housing growth loses momentum 

In the property market, PwC projects a slowdown in growth, with house price inflation at 3.7% in 2017 – down from 7% in 2016. The average house price could be worth around £220,000 this year – £8,000 higher than last year – and could rise to more than £300,000 by 2025, the firm warns.

Property sales, which tend to be more volatile than prices, are where Brexit uncertainty has manifested itself most strongly. Year-on-year, the number of transactions has been down for 12 consecutive months.

The London property market has been most severely affected by economic and political uncertainty, in addition to the recent change to Stamp Duty. Price growth in the capital for the first four months of 2017 was around 4%, compared with about 13% for the same period in 2016. PwC expects London’s housing market to continue to slow, with just 2.8% and 3.8% growth on average for 2017 and 2018 respectively.

Elsewhere in the UK, the East of England and southern regions will continue to grow above the UK average, the firm believes, while Northern Ireland and the North East will continue to lag behind. While the average house price across the UK has risen by 17% since mid-2007, over a quarter of all local authorities are still below their 2007 peaks.

Richard Snook, a Senior Economist at PwC, comments: “There is a huge disparity in how sub-regional housing markets have performed since the recession. The local authorities that have experienced the greatest falls in house prices since 2007 are all based in Northern Ireland, while London dominates biggest risers, with all boroughs experiencing price growth of over 50%.”

PwC’s analysis has also found that London’s property market has seen a structural shift recently, as house price growth has moved outward from the capital. Growing unaffordability within London, coupled with policy reform, has seen house prices in prime central boroughs slow, while values in outer boroughs and the commuter belt have risen.

Over the last two years, house prices in the outer boroughs have increased nine percentage points faster than in inner boroughs, while growth in the fastest growing cities within the commuter belt (including Basildon, Luton and Slough) exceeded those in London by four percentage points.

Snook concludes: “The affordability crisis within London has seen first time buyers in particular struggling to buy in the capital. In 2016, house prices in London were 13 times median earnings, while the 15 commuter belt towns offer a lower – albeit still high – ratio of nine times earnings.

“Essex appears to be a key commuter hotspot, with lower historical house prices than commuter towns west of London.”